Could the Picks actually be back?!

 Mount .500 here we are! How I’ve missed you… Well, at least in the playoffs. We went 3-3 in the first weekend of NFL postseason play and the picks are back (he says sarcastically)!

But I do feel the most confident in my process last week as I have been with the picks all season. So, let’s waste no time and get into the Divisional Round.

*All lines via FanDuel Sportsbook*

Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at Denver Broncos

As Trevor Lawrence was putting his helmet on to try and make a game winning drive with 1:04 left on the clock. Buffalo Bill fans everywhere must have had their head in their hands praying to the football gods to allow the season to end like this again. Josh Allen did what he’s seemingly always done in the playoffs, leave the field with the lead. It couldn’t end like that again, could it? Well, for those who are betting on the Bills or rooting for the Bills to win the Super Bowl the football gods were on your side in Jacksonville. Trevor Lawerence didn’t waste any time with the first snap he threw a game clinching interception to Cole Bishop and the Bills won their 8th playoff game with Sean McDermott and Josh Allen.

Looking for playoff win number nine, I’m a little dubious of this line. It’s not often that I don’t understand a line in the playoffs. When the lines came out over the weekend the Bills were favored by a point and half. Now the line is completely flipped in favor of the Broncos. Yes, Gabe Davis, Damar Hamlin, Tyrell Shavers, and Jordan Phillips were all put on injured reserve following the win against Jacksonville, but Josh Allen is still upright. I also get that Ty Johnson, Curtis Samuel, Terrel Bernard, and Ed Oliver are all questionable. But James Cook, Dalton Kincaid, and Dion Dawkins aren’t.

The last time we saw Bo Nix in the playoffs, he threw a touchdown on the first drive of his postseason career and didn’t much after that. He lost to this Buffalo Bills team 31-7 in Buffalo. Nix has a lot to do in order to be taken seriously as someone you feel confident putting money behind. Denver is the number one overall seed in the AFC and do have a pretty good defense, but they haven’t looked like a number one seed for majority of this season. 14 wins is 14 wins but how they got those wins has to be evaluated here. Since Denver’s bye week—they needed overtime to beat Marcus Mariota and Washington, beat the awful Raiders by a touchdown, dominated Green Bay, lost to Jacksonville, escaped Chris Oladoken and a battered Chiefs team, and clinched the number seed against a Chargers team that was resting for the Wildcard Round. They haven’t beaten a legitimate opponent since week 15. That’s over a month. I’ll back what seems like a team of destiny in the AFC and Josh Allen. Nobody circles the wagons quite like the Bills.  

San Francisco 49’ers (+7) at Seattle Seahawks

I want to be on the side of the 12s. That home field advantage is one of the best in sports not just football. I really want to. But because of Sam Darnold I can’t. Darnold has been awful in the biggest games he’s played in. Why would it change now? That’s a lot of weight to get off your back against a divisional opponent. And it gets worse than that for Sam Darnold and Seattle.

When looking at the head coach/quarterback combinations the edge goes to San Francisco.  It’s not close. The coaching job that Kyle Shanahan has done with this group despite all the injuries this team has suffered this year is incredible. Since taking over as 49’ers head coach, when Kyle Shanahan makes the playoffs, the minimum round that his team plays in is the Conference Championship Game. Somehow some way Shanahan will figure out a way to get it done.

Brock Purdy has only missed the playoffs once in his four career. In his third postseason he will be looking to take San Francisco to their third Conference Championship game.

Sam Darnold threw an interception and was sacked nine times in his only playoff game. This is Mike McDonald’s first playoff game as a head coach.

The difficulty starts for the 49’ers when you take a look at their defense. Two starting linebackers, Dee Winters and Luke Gifford, are questionable. Ji’Ayir Brown, one San Francisco’s starting safeties is out with a hamstring. Fred Warner is still a long shot to even the NFC Championship game. Even with Sam Darnold’s big game woes, Robert Saleh is going to have a head coaching job worthy scheme to stop the Seahawks offense.

However, San Francisco hasn’t lost in Seattle since 2021. And the 49’ers are looking for revenge from the week 18 performance.  So, there’s that. I’ll be backing the pedigree this weekend.

Houston Texans at New England Patriots (-3)

I hate this pick. I really do. But I cannot help but face the facts.

The Patriots are the better team right now. They are playing better complimentary football. In fact, they are the best in the NFL at that right now. And that’s all coaching. Mike Vrabel might be the best coach left in the AFC Playoff picture. And that’s why he will have his team prepared to beat the Houston defense.

Drake Maye will be able to keep the play alive for just an extra second to make a play. Something Aaron Rodgers couldn’t Monday night. Trey Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson will be prepared to run the ball on the ground. Stefon Diggs probably, knowing him, still has a chip on his shoulder going against his former team.

New England’s defense will not have problem returning serve to their offensive unit. CJ Stroud won his first outdoor playoff game on Monday. In that game he had five fumbles, an interception, and was sacked three times. In three outdoor playoff games Stroud has one touchdown pass. Houston will also be without their top receiver, Nico Collins. Right tackle Trent Brown is also questionable with an ankle injury. Christian Gonzalez doesn’t have an injury designation attached to him. In fact, linebacker Harold Landry III is the only Patriot defensive player on the injury report. The Patriot Way is officially back and as a long-time opponent of it, I’d be a fool to beat against it.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (+3.5)

Yes, I’m still following my heart which is extremely stupid. But we’re all human aren’t we. I just cannot quit these Bears. I’m in. On all of it. Caleb Williams will put the cap back on. The defense will find a way to just shut the water off in the second half. The ghosts of Solider Field will do something to will this team into the NFC Championship Game.

The Rams do have the better coach and quarterback. They have the better skill position players. They have more talent on defense. But Los Angeles hasn’t played in the cold yet this season. Temperatures will be in the teens on Sunday night. It will feel like single digits on the field with windchill.

We were here last year with Washington. Everyone expected that bandwagon to run out of gas against the more talented Detroit Lions team. Chicago is also at home. The home field advantage at Soldier Field will be extra wind at the back of the Bears. I’m not in the front of this bandwagon but I am enjoying my stay on it.

There they are. Do whatever you want these picks, let’s enjoy one of the best weekends of football there is on the calendar.