COVID NFL Over/Under Picks

 

Football is back. Usually, the return of football is like a breath of fresh air, and the excitement of doing your fantasy draft and watching your favorite team on Sunday’s returns.

This year however, it oddly feels like an episode of the Twilight Zone. I cannot place the exact feeling from one of their episodes, but while the world is still crumbling around the sports world with the pandemic and continued social justice fight. But, hey, we have got football! It has been well documented that I am not 100% all in on any of the sports coming back, but I will cautiously enjoy this football season, for however long it lasts.

Staying in the cautiously optimistic mindset, let’s take a look at the over/unders for the teams on the first day of the COVID NFL season. If you are new here, I will be giving three overs and three unders that are most likely to hit and make you some cash, without further ado:

*All of these odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

New York Giants 7.5 O (+260)/U (-335): OVER

Everything out of Giants Camp is extremely high praise of Daniel Jones in his second year as the man behind center for the G-Men. Even with a new coach, Joe Judge, all his weapons stay the same. He’s got an “improved” defense.  Most of the games in the first four weeks will be contests without defenses showing up and that plays right in the Giants hands. The Giants always seem to split games with all division rivals (except for the Washington Professional Football Team this year-they STINK).

The Giants have the luxury of playing Pittsburgh before they inevitably hit their stride halfway through the year, of playing Cincinnati (doesn’t matter road or home, Cinci will be all over the place this year [STAY AWAY]), and Arizona at home. That’s seven wins right there and they have eight more games to get one more win. I have the Giants personally going 8-8 and hitting your over by a hair, but it’ll be money in your wallet.   

Detroit Lions 6.5 O (-155)/U (+127): UNDER

I have no idea why the pencil pusher and the Lions are getting positive momentum toward the over… Stafford is a year older and has the same streaky weapons that he’s had for the past three years, a defense that has bought new pieces and sold pieces that would help the new additions, and play in a division with the Bears defense, and Aaron Rodgers (oh! And Captain Kirk Cousins with the “who the hell knows” Vikings).

The Bears and Packers will always be tough outs in the division and play well in Detroit so that plays against the Lions. Detroit also plays the NFC South that will put up boat loads of points throughout the season—and with the aforementioned defense, they’ll find themselves on the other side of a couple barn burners.

They can be an interesting fantasy team from time to time based on matchups, but for me, that’s all they’ll be this year. Pound the under if you want to get yourself some dough during these tough times (sorry, I’ve used up my one “during tough times” get out of jail free card, apologies).

Buffalo Bills 8.5 O (-159)/U (+131): UNDER

Let me get this out of the way from the top. I am not a fan of the Bills, never have, and never will. For me they are the Indiana Pacers if you’ve read my column before or heard any of my podcasts denouncing the Pacers chances of winning the playoffs every year. However, the Bills have knocked my Jets out of the playoffs on more than occasion, so this grudge against the Bills is more personal (and could very well be irrational—but I’m rolling with it). 

Since Tom Brady went south, the chatter of who gets to replace New England atop the AFC East totem pole has been a hot topic. The team that has been getting all the steam pumped up their rear ends is the Bills. They have a stout defense, but can’t score points to make that defense worth anything. Sean McDermott is an okay head coach, but this team for me is still missing a few pieces offensively to make them more than an 8-8 team. 

What also hurts their chances is playing both of the teams that played in last years Super Bowl while also playing Denver and the “fallen” Patriots on the road back to back at the end of the year. They also have a scheduled road loss in Tennessee in week six before playing Kansas City the very next. This schedule is not easy for any team and will be a test to how good Buffalo is. The Bills have been going through “the process” so let’s see if it’ll actually work, or will burst into flames much like what’s going on in Philadelphia with the Sixers. Good luck Buffalo, but I’ll be here in January counting my money on your under ticket. 

New England Patriots 8.5 O (-150)/ U (+123): OVER

I’ve already vomited writing the Patr-(hold here it comes again). I might spill my breakfast over my workstation more than once writing this, but to say that New England won’t be good in this division is like denying that a mask won’t help open up this country faster. I do not like admitting how easy it will be for the Patriots to sleepwalk into 12-4 for the millionth time since the day I was born, but it will happen.  

Cam Newton will play like shades of his MVP season and work magic with this team just like Brady did, and that defense will piece itself together to be good enough to play them into the playoffs. This team will not be making the Super Bowl this year, but they’ll be good enough to get in the playoffs, if we get that far.

Belechick has been dreaming of this scenario of being the “underdog” since he won his third Super Bowl in New England. The media has given the Pats all the motivation they need because they’re a bunch of brain-dead idiots that don’t understand how the Evil Emperor in New England works. So, congratulations to the Pats for winning the AFC East title again, maybe next year will be different (please for the love of all things holy!). I’m going to throw up for the seventh time since writing this, excuse me.

Houston Texans 7.5 O (-106)/U (-115): UNDER

I just have one question for the Houston Texans: WHO’S CATCHING THE FOOTBALL?

If that question can be answered than they might have a chance, but after trading away your best receiver in the offseason, while simultaneously doing nothing to the offensive line, how does this team improve or score any points. Bill O’Brien has really outdone himself here by achieving a new level of dumbfounding stupidity I thought was only achievable by Adam Gase. Misery does love company. Seriously, Watson has no reliable targets to throw to. Will Fuller is a great deep threat but has never been able to stay healthy, Houston’s slue of running backs can catch the ball, but if you consistently throw the check down, teams will stack the line and just wait you out. Bryan Anger will earn his paycheck because he will be trotting out to kick balls a lot this season.

Houston is good enough to save themselves from a three- or four-win season, but they will have to struggle for the seven wins I see on their schedule. Bill O’Brien might be out of a job after week four because they have one of the hardest months on the NFL calendar and it starts their season off. Then again, O’Brien hasn’t lost his job yet, so maybe the Texans will continue to allow him to walk on their property unimpeded as he is submarining their chances of ever being a successful franchise. Thank you, Bill O’Brien for the countless hours of entertainment, hopefully you’ll get to catch up with your friend Adam Gase at the loser coach convention in Vegas in October!

Pittsburgh Steelers 10.5 O (+238)/U (-305): OVER

Let’s end the COVID Over/Under column with something positive. This one is for my family in Pittsburgh who will be routing like wild dogs for their team this year.

Baltimore will be a challenge and will continue to be for the next seven plus years with Lamar in the division, but Cincinnati still on the bottom, and the way Pittsburgh owns Cleveland, I don’t see any reason why the Steelers can’t get 11 wins this year. Oh yeah, the schedule gods gave you the biggest gift I’ve seen with the back half of your schedule in some time. The last five weeks of the schedule will give Pittsburgh incredible momentum and possibly some false hope for their chances to win the Super Bowl. A Washington, Buffalo, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Cleveland finish an incredibly easy way to coast into the playoffs (especially with the extra playoff team) and be right there with Baltimore.

I don’t know if the defense will be as good as all the “experts” believe it will be—and I have my doubts about Rothlisberger coming back for another year, but in 2020 anything can happen. In a normal year, this team is probably hovering around 8-8/9-7, but will a good enough offense to keep them in the close games, and an above average defense that will feast on lesser competition, it’s good enough to have a helluvah time routing for the Black & Gold. Cheers to my family in Pittsburgh, enjoy this team, because I don’t know if you’ll have another contender in the near future.

Wow, the brief moment of semi-pre-COVID normalcy that this column has given me is as warming as a nice hot cup of Apple Cider in the winter. I am ready for the craziness we are going to endure while watching football in 2020—I only hope reading this column has given you as much enjoyment.