2022 NFL Team Over/Under

 Summer has given to Labor Day and what that means it’s time for football. It’s also time for my yearly picks for Team Wins Over/Under’s. I haven’t done that well in the past year but with all things considered I think Vegas has finally stumbled with NFL win totals. So, here goes nothing, here’s six picks for the upcoming season that I think are locks in win totals:

ALL OF THESE ODDS ARE COURTESY OF DRAFTKINGS SPORTSBOOK

Kansas City O/U 10.5: OVER (-120)

Why are people sleeping on the Kansas City Chiefs? I understand they haven’t delivered on being the dynasty that they were declared to be following Super Bowl LIV. However, to be fair to the Chiefs, nobody has repeated since the beginning of the 21^st century. On top of that, Patrick Mahomes becoming “the best quarterback to ever pick up a football” hasn’t happened yet, and who could live up to the unbelievable expectations that were handed their way? Parlay that with the AFC West getting immensely better with Davante Adams, Khalil Mack, and Russell Wilson all coming to compete against the Chiefs.

But to think that all the new kids on the block can kick Kansas City around all year long is a tough pill for me to swallow.

Also, I get that Tyreek Hill is playing football this year for Miami and Mahomes doesn’t have a proven deep threat for the first time in his young career, but he does have solid options all around the field. Fantasy owners might not like that Kansas City has lost a lot of highlight clips trading Hill—but so what? They can still win. The coaching staff that has won this division for six years in a row is still intact. Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in football, even if he is not the G.O.A.T, and the defense is still stout up front.

At this point Kansas City has reached the same level as the Patriots at the height of the Brady-Belichick era and the Indianapolis Colts and Payton Manning at the peak of Manning’s powers. Sure, there will always be challengers, but Kansas City should not be overlooked. Best believe the people in the Chief locker room will use the moniker of “nobody believes in us” because of all the hype in division and everyone lighting tables on fire in Buffalo.

So, buy in on the Chiefs due to people overlooking the most consistent franchise in the NFL over the past six seasons.

Baltimore Ravens O/U9.5: UNDER (+150)

I understand the Ravens were bit by the injury bug the most out of any team last year. I get Lamar Jackson is a top five quarterback in the NFL, but look around at the Baltimore skill position rooms… The proven talent is bare. Jackson also just lost his top wide out to Arizona and the Ravens top running back is still a question mark to start the season.

At some point you must give your defense a rest and this offenses ability to consistently do that is not promising.

Baltimore is a talented team, but a talented team that cannot stay healthy.

Also, Jackson’s contract negotiations are going to be a question every week. Even though he has given Baltimore self-imposed deadline; reporters are still going to ask him and John Harbaugh questions. That distraction is going to be costly. Even if it doesn’t make public noise, not knowing if your franchise quarterback is going to sign makes every week a pressure cooker. I have no doubts Jackson can handle that pressure, the rest of the team, well… On top of everything, the Ravens play a first-place type schedule with their in-division road games all coming within the last five weeks of the season. I don’t have questions about the talent on this team—it’s a team that can get 10 wins, but the schedule is not kind, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Baltimore “under preformed” yet again this year. Buy in on a media circus in Baltimore and too many tough games back-to-back-to-back as the reason the Ravens have a let down season.

 Detroit Lions O/U 6.5: UNDER (+105)

I don’t mean to pick on Detroit, but they haven’t really gotten that much better than last year. The coaching staff is fun and their fight in games is promising, but the one not so silent killer for this team is their secondary. Detroit is on the rise. I think they crushed the draft for the first year of a true rebuild. Aidan Hutchinson is going to be a great pro. Jameson Williams when he returns will be an excellent number one option. But it’s year one for those two. Jared Goff is still the quarterback, and he is still surrounded by OK talent, but nothing close to what he had in Los Angeles.

All of this said I do believe the Lions will be better than last year! By one game…

Improvement is improvement right?..

Aaron Rodgers is still the MVP; Minnesota has the chance to surprise people with a new coaching staff and a new focus on offense with weapons that can amaze. Having to play the top two teams in the NFC East in the first half of the season when you’re trying to build momentum doesn’t help either. Oh, and by the way the Lions also play the AFC East where Bill Belichick will run laps around Dan Campbell, Josh Allen will tear up the aforementioned weak secondary, and Tyreek Hill will run laps around everyone from Detroit to Miami.

The last reason I think we will season yet another year of a poor Lions team is because they were the subject of Hard Knocks. In the history of the HBO show, when did a team invite the Hard Knocks crew into camp and succeed? To save you a google search, it’s never happened. So, why do we think the Detroit Lions will change that trend?

There will be improvement in Detroit, but not much and not enough to get them to seven wins! What a ridiculous number!! Take the under to the bank!!

Seattle Seahawks O/U 5.5: UNDER (+105)

Seattle will be picking within the top five in next April’s draft. The Seahawks have punted (no pun intended) on the season and have presented it to the public as a lost season. If you feel confident in six wins for Seattle, let me ask you a simple question. Do you trust your money in the hands of Geno Smith? If you do, you’re playing with fire, and good luck to you.

It also doesn’t help Seattle’s hunt for six wins having to play the best division in football, the AFC West, on top of playing in a division that had three playoff teams last year. One of them being the Super Bowl Champs. Even if you’re out on Kyler Murray and Trey Lance as signal callers—and somehow, they sweep both season series with Arizona and San Francisco, Seattle would still only have four wins!

I really like Pete Carroll as a head coach, I’ve read his book twice, but this is a situation to me seems oddly similar to the 2009 USC Trojans.

Seattle does have talent on this roster but not enough in key positions to be a decent football team. So, pound the under for the Seahawks and maybe even bet them to be in the lottery if you have some spare change and want a little more action.

Atlanta Falcons O/U 5: UNDER (-145)

“With the first pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, the Atlanta Falcons select:”

Are the words Roger Goodell is going to say among boos in Kansas City.

Looking up and down the Falcon roster I see a talented offense with a quarterback that has been a better Madden QB than real life QB since he entered the league with Tennessee. I see a defense that will be statistically one of the worst in the league and a head coach that leaves much to be desired in Arthur Smith.

Even if you’re optimistic about the Arthur Smith tenor in Atlanta, are you confident in the offensive system that he ran in Tennessee the past two seasons? It’s a good system but the Falcons don’t have a running back that’s even 30% as good as Derrick Henry. Atlanta finally has given in to rebuilding and this is the first year of a complete tear down. It’ll be okay soon, but Falcon fans just close your eyes this year, and find a new hobby for one winter.

New Orleans Saints O/U 8.5: OVER (-110)

Division turnover is what the NFC South is famous for.

To pencil in Tampa Bay as division winners again with all the noise surrounding Tom Brady’s personal life, an offensive line that’s in shambles, and Todd Bowles as a head coach—that’s too much for me to confidently pick Tampa as repeat NFC South champs.

Someone has to win the division and my pick is the Saints. I love this defense and offensive weapons surrounding Jameis Winston. I’m lukewarm on the rookie head coach Dennis Allen, but I think Winston gets a bad rap. Yes, he’s the only quarterback to throw 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions, but he admitted HE COULDN’T SEE! If I couldn’t see while writing the column and still spelled a third of the words correctly, I’d called that a success. Winston also threw for 5,000 yards in that 30/30 season. He has talent and we’ve known that since he stole crab legs while in college at Florida State while winning a National Title.

Now back to the Saints defense!

This defense will shock people. Yes, it has some brand names, but it has a lot of guys who are good at playing defense. It to me is the closest defense to being a complete unit where each level of the defense compliments one another. The signings the Saints made I think are the smartest signings in football. The Bayou will have a good football team this year. I’m not predicting a Saints Super Bowl win, but I don’t buy in on the takes that will tank this team are Jameis Winston and Dennis Allen. There is way too much talent on this team not to challenge Tampa Bay in the division and to not be a playoff team.

Buy in on a good football team in the Big Easy!