12 NFL Playoff Gambling Rules that'll win you money

Congratulations! We’ve made it to the NFL Playoffs. After another wild, utterly bizarre, NFL season us football fans finally get to enjoy the purest form of football by the best football teams 2022 has to offer. I’ll agree to a degree that the overall slate isn’t as sexy without Aaron Rodgers, or Mike Tomlin, or the craziness that comes with the Dan Campbell led Detroit Lions. But here we are.

However, it could still turn out to be a fun weekend.

This weekend offers us two up and coming quarterbacks making their playoff debuts that we figure to be mainstays in postseason for the next decade in Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. The Elite B Tier of quarterback Joe Burrow and Josh Allen (if Mahomes didn’t exist this “B Tier” would be on pair talent wise with Peyton and Brady class from the mid-2000’s) get to add another playoff game to their growing catalogue. We also get dare I say a throwback 2007-ish New York Giants team with Eli Manning’s lookalike and perhaps the next great Giant Head Coach. Oh yeah, and we also still have Tom Brady in prime time on “Super Wild Card Monday” against a Cowboys team that (stop if me if you’ve heard this before) looks to break the Post Aikman-Irvin-Johnson slump.

So, as we go into “Super” Wild Card Weekend and as I continue my weekly football picks (2022 record:134-131-7, Locks on podcast: 40-32) let me offer you some of the playoff gambling rules along the way that I have abided by for the past 5 years to help avoid stupid pitfalls to win money:

SEA (+9.5) @ SF

I have Seattle and the points in this game because of Rule No. 1: It’s Hard to beat a team twice in a year much less three times. This rule is based more on common sense than anything else. If you are familiar with something you’re going to have a better understanding of what is going to happen.

San Francisco was in the same position they are in this year going into the NFC Championship last season against the Rams. The 49’ers if you go into the deep depths of your mind lost that game against L.A. who went on to win the Super Bowl. I’m not saying that Seattle and Geno Smith are going to win the Super Bowl, but Pete Carroll will create a game plan that keeps this game within a touchdown and give a scare to 7th round rookie Brock Purdy.

One last small piece of why I like the Seahawks is because of Rule No. 2: When finished with your research and you are against the public TRUST THAT RESEARCH AND INSTINCTS! Everyone loves the ‘49’ers this postseason and they are the popular pick to make the Super Bowl and to win it. Be wary of that. Very wary.

And the reason to not trust the 49’ers is Rule No. 3: Never trust a rookie quarterback making a playoff start unless their names are Mark Sanchez or Robert Griffin III. Time will tell if Brock Purdy makes this list, but as for now, the rule still applies.

LAC @ JAX (+2.5)

Jacksonville could very well be fool’s gold due to the fact they basically had a playoff game against the Tennessee Titans just to make it in the dance, but one factor, Doug Peterson. Which leads me to Rule No. 4: Take a REAL close look at the coaches and quarterbacks in each game and pick the combo you trust more. Then look again and determine who is in the ultimate circle of trust. Justin Herbert makes this choice close. But then again, when your head football coach looks like an 18-year-old intern with four different highlighters sticking out of a vizor, I’ll choose the guy who won a Super Bowl against Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and a quarterback that won a College National Championship against Nick Saban.

Plus, I like the defensive front of Jacksonville to make Justin Herbert’s evening a rough one, and the Jaguars secondary against a Mike Williams-less Charger wide receiving core is a real sneaky good matchup for Jacksonville.

MIA @ BUF (-13.5)

If everyone is on San Francisco to make the Super Bowl, then all of humanity and the Aliens from the next two solar systems are backing Buffalo. Given that, let’s take another look at Rule No. 4 just one more time. On one hand I have Josh Allen and Sean McDermott. And on the other hand, I have a quarterback that looks like he is going to throw an atrocious interception and another head coach that looks like an intern. Rule No. 5: If an off the field event is the rallying cry for a team DO NOT BET AGAINST KARMA. As Damar Hamlin continues his recovery it will continue to add rocket fuel to the greater area of Buffalo. Also, see Rule 3.

I’ll slam through an ablaze table with Bills Mafia this week.  

NYG (+3) @ MIN

One thing that does scare me about backing the Giants against Minnesota is that at every turn the Giants seem to be the pick here. When I saw the line on Monday afternoon—I thought it was a misprint. I also thought that the line would move in favor of the Vikings at some point this week (I’m happy it hasn’t) because of how favorable it seemed to be for the G-Men.

The Giants have a few rules on their side against Minnesota. Rule No. 6: If there is a team that is young and hungry with a one in a lifetime coach rid them ‘til the end of the road. The G-Men haven’t been infected by the disease of more made famous by Isaiah Thomas in Bill Simmons “Book of Basketball” which summed up is a young team that is still on the cheap that haven’t won a ring yet, so they don’t have the distractions that come with winning coupled with the price tags that come along with a championship.

The next rule I follow to a tee saves me and maybe the New York Football Giants. Rule No. 7: If a team has memorable playoff losses due to special teams, there’s something in the cloth of the jerseys that will never go away. Vikings fans I’m sorry; shield your eyes and maybe grab a waste basket because it’s time to bring up Gary Anderson again. And it doesn’t just stop with Mr. Almost Perfect it continues into the 21st century with the Blair Walsh missed 27-yarder in the frigid cold. This year, Minnesota has Greg Joseph as their place kicker. And if you haven’t watched one Viking game this season, having money on Greg Joseph when you need him is like watching an infant crawl through speeding traffic.

The last rule that I cherish not only during the playoffs but also every week of professional football is Rule No. 8: Take EVERY chance you get to bet against Kirk Cousins, Mitch Trubisky, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Nathan Peterman, or Andy Dalton. Not to pile on Kaptain Kirk anymore but, this game will kick off at 3:05pm local time so the “1 o’clock god Kirk Cousins” doesn’t come into play, so yet another reason to laugh all the way to the bank.

BAL @ CIN (-9.5)

If you are screaming at me to look at the beginning of this column and check literally the first rule, I would like to add this prevision to that rule: When two teams are playing for a third time and the team who is 0-2 and has their third string QB disregard this rule.

I really like John Harbaugh, a whole lot better than Zac Taylor, but not even he can come up with a winning game plan to slow down Joe Burrow and make Anthony Brown (or Tyler Huntley by some miracle) look like a serviceable signal caller.

Cincinnati also follows another rule that I added last season so it’s still hot and fresh Rule No. 9: Back Joe Burrow at every turn because he is basically Superman in the playoffs unless the opponent is hosting a home Super Bowl.

DAL @ TB (+2.5)

And it all comes down to “Super” Wild Card Monday against perhaps the most obvious karma matchup of this century. Which leads to Rule No. 10: NEVER EVER, EVER BET AGAINST TOM BRADY. NEVER EVEN THINK ABOUT. Live by this rule if it’s the only rule you listen to. I totally understand the people who will say “have you watched Tampa Bay this year, they are awful, this year isn’t the same.” All I have to say to that is 28-3.

Maybe I’m damaged from being a Jet fan my entire life, but I just simply won’t bet against Brady and if you do, good luck to yah.

Speaking of me being a Jets fan, that leads into the coaching matchup. I don’t really trust Todd Bowles in the playoffs because well, he hasn’t made the playoffs as a head coach before. But the opposite side is a part of Rule No. 11: If you get to bet against Wade Phillips, Mike McCarthy, Marvin Lewis, Jim Caldwell, Bill O’Brien, Jason Garrett, Matt Nagy, Adam Gase, or any coach that looks like they are getting their car towed anytime they get pan to on the sidelines. I’m sure I’ll add Mike McDaniel and Brandon Staley aka “the interns” to that list shortly. Mike McCarthy is also coaching the number one franchise to bet against in the playoffs in a big spot. Which just happens to be Rule No. 12: If the Cowboys are the favorites in a playoff game pick the underdog without thinking.

And there you have it, 12 of the rules I use to get past Vegas and enjoy playoff football a little extra. I hope your teams win and your tickets cash and if you fade these rules, you’ve been warned!