2023-24 NFL Team Over/Under Win Total Predictions

  

Last year was not a good year for this column. Only one of the six picks from last year hit and it happened to be the defending Super Bowl Champions that came in as (-120) to win just 11 games. There is a similar team in this years’ crop of teams, but we are aiming to not only cash on the only favorite in the field, but to go as close to perfect as possible. So, as we flush last years’ Over/Under Column down the toilet, let’s start anew.

All numbers found on DraftKings Sportsbook.

 

Seattle O/U 9.5: OVER (+125)

Seattle was featured last year and blew through their win total surprising the entire football world following the Russell Wilson trade. Well, everyone but the Seahawks themselves threw them aside. Seattle, scouting their own, knew they would be better off without Wilson as their signal caller. Following the trade something incredible happened. Something even the Seattle brass could not have foreseen. Geno Smith last season was the league’s most efficient passer and propelled an offense that was dormant with Wilson.

Instead of a long rebuild, Seattle now has a prolonged window of championship contention after what could be Seattle’s Walmart Version of the Herschel Walker trade.

Seattle has not identified their Emmitt Smith yet, but I do see Geno Smith offering a good encore to his 2022 season with a grouping of skill position players that got even better. Pete Carroll is still one of the best coaches in football, and you cannot discount the 12th man ever. In a division that has a team actively tanking along with Seattle historically always competitive against both San Francisco and the Rams the Seahawks will be looking at 10 wins and challenging the best in the NFC.

What is supposed to be year two of a rebuild, adding an incredible receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba from Ohio State to already the league’s most accurate passing game, the best corner in the country in Devon Witherspoon, and signing Devin Bush while bringing back Bobby Wagner to bolster the front seven, Seattle is primed to be one of the top teams in a weak NFC this year.

Tampa Bay O/U 6.5: OVER (+120)

It seems like a decade has passed since Tampa Bay became title town thanks to Tom Brady. Now, the quarterback room has quickly returned to what it looked like before Brady decided to take his talents to South Florida, but it’s not the worst in the league. Baker Mayfield still has some magic left in his right arm, and you can get your bottom dollar he will screw thousands of NFL betters at some point this season. Whether that’s here with the Over/Under Win Total, the spread in a random regular season game, total points in a game, or America’s new favorite, in-game prop bets. Baker is a master at cooking up disaster for people placing their money on either ends of the spectrum with the former number one overall selection.

I don’t love Todd Bowles as a head coach, I lived through rooting for the team where he got his first go around as a head man, but what I do love is the talent on the roster. There isn’t much championship pedigree left—and some of the holdovers from the 2020 Super Bowl Champions are already in trade rumors. Doesn’t matter, the NFC South is a snow globe every single season so picking up a few wins in division won’t be a problem, plus Tampa plays three teams that picked in the Top 10 in this past draft (all of which don’t show signs of major improvement this season).

Much like last year, going 8-9 might win the division in the NFC South, but even if it doesn’t, where Tom Brady was at the end of the year last year is not that far off from where 2023 Baker Mayfield is and that’ll be good enough to keep the same mark and hit the over in Tampa Bay.   

 

New England Patriots O/U 6.5: UNDER (+120)

No, this is not a homer pick. Just because the Jets have as much hype this year as in any year of the franchise’s history isn’t the reason why I’m down on the Patriots. It’s not because Mac Jones in year three is still as big of a question mark as you can have with a starting quarterback. It’s simply because I don’t know how New England is going to move the football down the field. Last I checked you need to score points to win games. The Patriots have one of the worst collections of talent with their skill position players in the league and with the aforementioned question mark at quarterback, Bill Belichick can do all the high-level coaching he wants, he’s not suiting up and executing the plays.

Mac Jones also is going to be in his third offense in three years. Remind me again if that’s a great idea for your franchise quarterback to endure in his first three seasons in the NFL?

If you still think I’m a homer, let’s take a look at the Patriots offense from two seasons ago (discounting last year because they had once failed Detroit Lions Head Coach Matt Patricia calling the plays) and see where their rankings stood up: 14th in passing yards per game [226], 6th in points per game [27], but that was added by three pick sixes (tied for 2nd in the NFL that season), and had Nick Folk, who was one of the best kickers in the league only missing three of his 39 field goal attempts in 2021 all of which were from 50 plus yards out.

If you still think I have Jet Green colored glasses on, according to Sharp Football Analysis the Patriots have the hardest schedule in the league. Nobody has a harder schedule than New England. Not to mention all the circulating rumors of Patriot Owner Robert Kraft growing impatient with Belichick and the all-time great head coach potentially on the hot seat if a major improvement doesn’t happen soon.  

I just don’t see Bill Belichick being able to pull a rabbit out of hat this season and the great Empire of the New England Patriots can officially come to an end at season's end.

 

ATTENTION, ATTENTION. Welcome to the NFC East portion of the column!

I absolutely LOVE this division this year. Maybe this will be the undoing of a potential masterpiece, but no risk, no reward, I’ll go down with the ship!

New York Giants O/U 7.5: OVER (+100)

Let me ask a quick series of questions… Do you remember the Giants Over/Under Win Total from last year?

I’ll give you a second because it was a long time ago in football terms. It was seven.

That means with the reigning Coach of the Year, winning a road playoff game, only winning one division game all year, having a quarterback in year two of a system that produced arguably his best season as a pro, and an improvement in wide receivers—all of that is only worth A HALF GAME? I don’t buy it.

Not only do I see the Giants smashing this over, but I also see them splitting with both the Cowboys and Football Team, and contending with Philadelphia for the division.

I don’t see a step back or even as much as a stumble with this new group in charge of making decisions for the Giants. Every move made so far has been the right one and Brian Daboll is one of the top 10 head coaches in the league by a wide margin. Unless for unforeseen major injury the Giants will be back in the second round of the playoffs this year along with 10 regular season wins.

Washington Football Team O/U 6.5: OVER (+100)

No, you did not take a time machine back to 2021, I simply refuse even with ownership change to call the professional football team that occupies the United States Capital by its given name on principle. This has nothing to do with my wanting to bring back the original name. I thought that name should’ve been canned years ago. It has everything to do with liking in retrospect the joke name that former disgraced Washington Owner Daniel Snyder decided to choose when he was forced to change the name the first time. And since “Red Tails” is off the table, I will only refer to this team as the “Washington Football Team,” the “Professional Football Franchise in the greater Washington D.C. area,” or jokingly the “Commies.” That’s it.

That said and out of the way—I for some reason really like this team.

Washington still has a Top 10 defense in terms of yards per game given up and points allowed 3rd and 10th respectively. They have a group of receivers that could be the most slept on group in football and a quarterback that while largely unknown looks to have the goods to be at least league average this season, which is the best Washington has had since Kirk Cousins left for Minnesota.

Add into the mix that Washington is tied for the most rest advantage days over their opponents according to Sharp Football Analysis with 12.  

Also, I don’t understand the hate sent Ron Rivera’s way, I trust him as a head coach more than half of the NFL and he’s made the playoffs with teams worse than the one he will oversee in 2023.

Washington will be a long way away from the playoffs, but they will eclipse the halfway point of the season with more than half of their win total already in the bag.

Book Washington over their total, making the NFC East one of the hardest divisions in football.

Philadelphia Eagles O/U 11.5: OVER (-105)

Much like their Super Bowl LVII opponent, last year I just couldn’t come up with a world where the Kansas City Chiefs would lose six games. This year, I just can’t see this Philadelphia Eagles squad losing six games.

Even with a supposed Super Bowl Hangover, this team is just too talented. They also have a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder the size of the state he plays in.

How often does a team that goes to the Super Bowl get the widely thought of best player in the following draft? Not often? Well Philly might have struck gold. That Philly pass rush getting better will feast on according to Sharp Football Analysis, the 10th easiest schedule in football.

Philadelphia will be flying their way back toward the number one overall seed in the NFC and making all the under betters look foolish on their way.

There it is. Your Over/Unders to take to the bank for the 2023-24 season. Enjoy all the wings, pizza, chips and dip all season while you watch some good, ugly, magical, and mind-blowing football this season. If the season and postseason is anything like this past offseason, we’ll be in for a year that could go down in the record books. Cheers to football!