2025 NFL Team Over/Under Predictions

 It’s officially football season!

What that means is it’s time for an immeasurable amount fantasy drafts, an inexcusable amount of dumb lists, too many ridiculous “hot takes” that will be proven false by Thanksgiving, and an unhealthy obsession with your teams’ schedule. And even though I try every year not to fall into the trap that is everything I just mentioned, I have once again found myself adding to each.

I’m in five fantasy leagues, I believe Jahmyr Gibbs and Justin Jefferson will have similar production to what Saquon Barkley and Ja’Marr Chase did last season, and I believe the New York Jets will not have back-to-back wins until November, and I’m about to add to the dumb lists with this column right now.

Because I’m a Jet fan, I will have to go elsewhere around the league to watch winning football each week and this years’ Over/Under column will have that in mind. Even though this year it was the hardest it’s ever been to find good bets for win totals. Anyway, I battled through that adversity to try to provide an encore for a 5-1 2024 column. Let’s get into it!

All odds can be found on ESPN Bet.

Seattle Seahawks (11-7) Over 8.5 Wins (+110)

Maybe it’s because Marshawn Lynch isn’t sending Lumen Field into the stratosphere, or that the Legion of Boom isn’t laying the wood on opposing wide receivers, or because Pete Carroll isn’t leading this team out of the tunnel every week, but the Seahawks aren’t being talked about enough as a team that could challenge the top of the NFC this season.

Part of the reason I believe the Seahawks are getting undervalued going into 2025 is partly due to the skepticism around whether Sam Darnold can duplicate the season he had last year in Minnesota. Which is completely fair. However, Mike McDonald is in year two of changing the Seahawks defense into a form of the L.O.B. (Legion of Boom), and with the addition of Klint Kubiack as the offensive coordinator, Darnold will find himself on a similar team that he was on in Minnesota, a defense that will be tough to score on,  a good rushing attack, and a good receiving core although slightly worse receivers because there is no Justin Jefferson.

This is also a team that is coming off 10 wins. Winning football is back to the Great Northwest even though it looks different than the last era.

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-9) Under 8.5 Wins (+100)

I understand what I’m proclaiming here. Every time I’ve had the Steelers in this column, I’ve went over their total because all Mike Tomlin does is finish over .500 and hang around playoff contention.

But all that confidence in Tomlin has gone out the window the minute Pittsburgh signed onto the Aaron Rodgers farewell tour. If you didn’t watch Rodgers last season, I don’t blame you if you didn’t, every minute he was out on the field, you saw a 40-year-old trying to find his footing again after suffering a major leg injury. Which was the reality. Rodgers didn’t have a good season last year despite some stats that might be slung in your face. If Rodgers was 31 years old instead of 41, the Rodgers move to Pittsburgh would be talked about as if the greatest player in the league was reloading and trying to win a second Super Bowl in a better situation following a down year. Instead, because the Jets experiment blew up in such a disastrous fashion, Rodgers is banking on the year over year success of the Steelers and a good defense to hid from the fact that he cannot throw the football down the field in the same way anymore.

If Mike Tomlin wanted to keep is streak of above .500 seasons alive, he should have thrown his body in front of the decision to bring Aaron Rodgers aboard. For all of the Steeler fans that have been shorting their team over the last three years, this year you will be correct.

Kansas City Chiefs (13-4) Over 11.5 Wins (+115)

It is no secret, the Chiefs experienced and benefited from an incredible amount of luck last season in order to go 15-2. I also know that they have an unprecedented NFL record 17-straight wins in one-score games. I’m not predicting that every time the Chiefs find themselves in a one-score situation late in the 4th quarter this season, that the Chiefs will end up with a victory nor that their luck will continue to the same degree. But because of that lucky rabbit’s foot the rest of the public is downplaying how good the Chiefs are. It’s either that or they just flat out disrespect the greatness of this team because of blatant hate.

This Chiefs team is entering the same realm as the dynastic New England Patriots. They are that great. During the Brady-Belichick run the respect of their greatness was reflected in the win total number. I don’t believe that to be the case here with the Kansas City Chiefs. If it was, this win total would be placed at 12.5 or 13.5 as ridiculous as that might sound.  

The Chiefs do have a tough schedule given all the travel and stand-alone games, but we are talking about Patrick Mahomes still. Just because he had a down year given his standard doesn’t mean that’s the new normal. What that should signal is that Mahomes will get in the lab after an embarrassing Super Bowl and “turn back the clock” to his MVP years. Also add in the rumors that this is potentially Travis Kelce’s last season, Mahomes will remind everyone just how incredible he is. You may not like the KC, but you can still make money off this team in the middle of their dynasty. Which is absurd!

Atlanta Falcons (8-9) Over 7.5 (-145)

The NFC South is routinely a division that is a gigantic tornado of confusion. It is historically best to just stay on the sidelines and watch the madness. Except, one player has changed that for me this year: Michael Penix.

The way the Falcons played last season when they switched to the 8th overall pick in the 2024 draft, compared to Kirk Cousins, on both sides of the ball was noticeable. If you look at the record following the switch, you will see that Atlanta lost two of three games Penix started and missed winning the division by two games. But what you may have forgotten is the scores of those games. In the only win on Penix’s young ledger was a game where Penix didn’t factor much into the 34-7 win. The defense scored two touchdowns, Bijan Robinson ran for 94 yards and two touchdowns, while Penix threw for 202 yards and threw an interception that should have been caught by Kyle Pitts. In the two losses (30-24 Washington in OT, 44-38 Carolina in OT) both were not the fault of the rookie. Penix kept Atlanta in those games and showcased a type of poise that was well beyond his years as an NFL rookie. Even in a brief sample, Penix showed signs of being the quarterback that we’ll back on as the “how did my team pass on that guy” guy.

 Add in the fact the New Orleans Saints are punting on the season because they are in the definition of cap hell. The Carolina Panthers are trying to resuscitate Bryce Young’s career in Carolina. And the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are dealing with a couple key injuries to start the season. The opportunity for the Falcons to make some noise in this division is there. Even if it’s only eight wins.