Against the Grain Conference Championship Picks

 We’ve reached the Conference Championship Games and we’re still at .500. After a 3-3 first round, the second round was 2-2. With only three games left in the NFL season, something’s got to give. Let’s bring it!

*All lines via FanDuel Sportsbook*

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+4.5)

I’m breaking one of the gambling commandments, yes those exist, by picking the Broncos. I don’t truly believe Denver can reach the Super Bowl. I wouldn’t be shocked if they do, but I’m picking New England, yuck, to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LX. But the reason they won’t cover the spread is because of Drake Maye.

He hasn’t played like an MVP in the playoffs. Maye may still win the award, but these playoffs aren't a confirmation that he’s the best player in the sport. But he’s made the plays that he’s needed to make to get his team into this spot. However, he’s thrown an interception in both games. Maye’s combined completion percentage in both games is 58.9. In the regular season Maye led the league in completion percentage at a rate of 72 percent. In both postseason games Maye has battled the elements in Foxborough, but that dip is jarring beyond snow and freezing temperatures. Now he’s got to go on the road and battle not just the cold but the altitude.

This will be Maye’s first time playing in Denver. That’ll be an adjustment period for the sophomore quarterback.

But I don’t think Maye’s play will be the worst on the field—that’ll be done by Jarett Stidham. Stidham hasn’t started or thrown a pass in an NFL game since 2023. The last time Jarett Stidham threw a pass in a game was week 18 against the Las Vegas Raiders in a 27-14 loss. In that game the journeyman backup went 20/34 for 272 yards, a touchdown pass to Jerry Judy, and an interception. Stidham has only thrown for more than 200 yards four times in 20 career games. The fifth time won’t be Sunday. Denver has the better defense and slightly better special teams that will keep it close, but Stidham will be the ultimate reason they will be going back to their homes and not booking a flight to San Francisco.

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)

The Rams have been the consensus best team in the NFL since around week 11 when they beat this Seahawks team by two at home. A lot has changed since then. Seattle’s defense isn’t the Legion of Boom, but it is the best in the NFL this season. Jason Myers is the best kicker left in the playoffs. Jaxson Smith-Njigba is arguably the best skill position left in the bracket. Oh, and this week I’m with the 12s. The home field advantage Seattle will have playing against a division rival will be a deciding factor in this game. And L.A. hasn’t been clicking on all cylinders on the road so far this postseason. That’s the reason I’m going against the better coach/quarterback duo.

Last week in Chicago was either a badge of armor or gets thrown out because of the inhuman conditions at Soldier’s Field. However, two weeks ago in Carolina, the Panthers defense was able to cause some problems against Stafford and the offense. I expect Seattle’s defense to apply similar tactics that both Chicago and Carolina had success with.

Give me a Super Bowl rematch in Super Bowl LX between the Seahawks and Patriots. And hopefully a guaranteed record in the green for the playoffs!