2021 Spring Training Rankings

 Baseball’s Christmas Morning is here! Welcome to Spring Training! It seems incredible that baseball has reached the point where they can make their second go-around with a pandemic season. Baseball is trying to be the second sport to have two attempts at a season with one being a “normal” regular season.

Major League Baseball is attempting to play a full 162-game schedule with most of the protocols from 2020 in place.  MLB will be lucky if they have the same fortune as they had in the the abbreviated season in 2020 it would be remarkable if they finish the plan that they have for 2021 without an incident that would be a major setback for the league and the country. Baseball is also eyeing the next decade with the young fan in mind. The rule changes that will be under scrutiny because of the expiring CBA are:

            Seven-inning double headers return.

            The ball is “deadened” to try to cut back on homers and have the ball in play more often.

                        *Cue the analytical nerds setting fire to their laptops.  

            A runner on second base starting in the 10^th inning.

            14-team playoff.

I am a fan of the seven-inning double headers and would personally push to have baseball be seven-inning games to be the length of games from here on out. Something about seven innings is more fun and kept me even more engaged than I usually am. The deadened baseball is one of the moves that will increase the action with the ball in play. The other is incentivizing putting ball in play in the contracts that are signed.

All the teams records are based off of the Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs projections.

30. Colorado Rockies 61-101

From a karma aspect the Rockies record should be much worse because they ruined a relationship with their best player (perhaps in franchise history) so bad that they had to trade him and $50 Million.

Colorado is going to be bad, not worse than what we’ve seen from Baltimore, Miami, or Detroit in recent years, but along the same line of horrendous baseball. The only hope that they have is to keep their relationship with Trevor Story on speaking terms until July when it will be time to hopefully make up for the lack of prospects, they didn’t get from the Arenado trade. If they don’t and let Story walk in the offseason, they will be doomed for even longer letting their top two players walk out with almost nothing in return.

29. Pittsburgh Pirates 62-100

Every time I have to talk in a negative way about the Pirates it hurts me a little inside. I have family in Pittsburgh that love the Pirates. I have gone to many Pirate games over the years and love the atmosphere in and around the ballpark. Pittsburgh is an incredible baseball city with the best ballpark in the country (haven’t been to San Francisco yet to complete my opinion on that, but, someday) and they unfortunately have returned to a team that will be at the bottom of the barrel floundering around with starved baseball fans wishing for better days. I wish I could offer a silver lining with the prospects that they have on the horizon, but even the talent pool that they have to choose from isn’t all that great. Maybe 2022 will be different, for my family, and the baseball fans of Pittsburgh, I hope so.

28. Detroit Tigers 65-97

This Tigers team reminds me of a slightly worse 2014 Houston Astros. It’s not because of A.J. Hinch (who wasn’t even the manager yet, it was Bo Porter) and it’s not because Robbie Grossman is the starting left fielder. It’s because they have a young group of guys who I really like.

The Astros before the cheating scandal were a likable group, I actually routed for them up until 2015 when they beat the Yankees in the Wild Card game. I liked Altuve up until the cheating scandal. For Detroit, I really like Jeimer Candelario, Daz Cameron, and Niko Goodrum as the three young pieces. They’re not comparable to Altuve, Springer, and Correa in 2014, but it’s a nice group of young players who are on the right path to being All-Star level talent. A.J. Hinch taking the job is head scratching unless you fully buy into Hinch rebuilding his public perception around the league—building a contender in Detroit—the right way.

27. Texas Rangers 66-96

This is the last team I am previewing because I am beyond lost with what to think about this team.

26. Baltimore Orioles 68-94

The Orioles were a frisky team in 2020. It will have to wait until 2022 to truly see if they were just a one weird year frisky team, or if 2020 was the beginning of a core that will bring Baltimore back into the mainstream for the casual fan.

2021’s outlook will be similar to 2019 or 2018. Losing will continue to happen because the top of the AL East have the potential for three super teams. There is no room at the table for Baltimore to be good in division and when you play Toronto, Tampa Bay, and the Yankees 18 times a year each, the fun and frisky O’s will wish for brighter days while reminiscing on the frisky summer of 2020.

25. Miami Marlins 68-94

Miami will be fun again this year, however, not for that long. The Marlins can repeat the success that they had last season, but just like in 2020, for a short burst of time. The Marlins are like Baltimore and will lose a lot of games based off the division that they are in. The future is bright, but 2021 will continue the bulk of losing. The good thing for Miami is Sixto Sanchez, Jorge Alfaro, and Jazz Chisholm (awesome name) will get more reps and be the core that will bring Miami back into contention.

24. Arizona Diamondbacks 69-93

I have no clue what Arizona is going to be. I know they are not going to be a good team because they have to play the Padres and Dodgers 38 times. For me, that’s 32 losses or so. Arizona is in the middle of nowhere from an organizational point. I don’t think one player on this roster will be on the next team that could potentially contend out West. Good luck to the Diamondbacks because I don’t know how this team is.

23. Seattle Mariners 69-93

Just because I love Kyle Lewis doesn’t mean his team is going to be good. James Paxton back in the Northwest will be fun, and they have guys like Shed Long or Mitch Haniger are fun.

The pitching staff in Seattle is one of the best in the league for this year, but the lineup is just not up to par. The staff will be pushed to the limits but on nights it will be extremely fun to watch. But they have to deal with the “Killer A’s:” Angels, A’s and Astros. As fun as they could be the fantasy of who the M’s could be will most likely not translate into reality. Since DorkTown took my mind on a spectacular journey at the pandemic I feel for every Mariner fan, so I am sorry this fun team will not lose many games. But that’s what the Mariners are!  

22. Cleveland Baseball Team 70-92

Cleveland will take a huge step backwards in 2021. They will be successful on the day Shane Bieber pitches (maybe not though, it could be Jacob deGrom circa 2018) and Jose Ramirez can win you a game here and there by himself.

Other then that, how Cleveland can be successful in a division that has Minnesota still in their championship window and the White Sox as the new challenger with a young core of Moncada, Abreu, and Jiménez with Tony La Russa they will be an intriguing team. That doesn’t leave any room at the table for Cleveland. They missed their window, now the brass needs to retool for the next run of success…

21. Cincinnati Reds 70-92

Losing the defending Cy Young award winner is never good. It also doesn’t help that Bauer dragged Cincy into the playoffs before pitching his heart out when the Reds got to the playoffs. I wasn’t high on Cincinnati before 2020; Bauer was their MVP and the Reds let him walk out the door.

Like a lot of teams, the Reds don’t have enough arms to survive through the season with the amount of pitching that 2021 will require to get to the playoffs. The Reds have a lot of good back end bullpen arms, I just don’t know how often their relief studs will be able to impact the game in the way they are getting paid for.

 

20. Kansas City Royals 71-91

Kansas City will be a fun MLB.tv team to watch on a random Wednesday night in the middle of July. The reason for that is KC is in no-mans-land and is the only team stuck exactly in the middle. The Benitendi trade didn’t make much sense for the Royals because it looks like they don’t know if they want to continue going all in on tanking until the end of the decade or if they want to try to contend in the short term.

Salvador Perez showed signs of life last season and will have to prove if 2020 wasn’t his last good season. However, Benitendi, Whit Merrifield, Hunter Dozer, Carlos Santana, and Jorge Soler are a fun veteran group that could have the ceiling of a borderline playoff team if the pitching were a lot better. This is a 2011 playoff team for sure, but in 2021 in a division that two very good teams at the top while facing the NL Central with St. Louis and Milwaukee getting to tee off against this sub-par but frisky Royals team.

19. San Francisco Giants 73-89

San Francisco is building. 2021 will be a continuation to the next contender by the bay. San Fran has enough pitching to continue to build and be a good team in a stacked division. It isn’t San Francisco’s fault that the Dodgers and Padres will be superpowers for the next three to five years. However, the Giants aren’t far off with competing in that division. It will not be this year, but playing close to .500 baseball will be key for the young guys who will be learning from Posey, Belt, and Longoria which will be invaluable.

18. Philadelphia Phillies 74-88

Wanna be New York Yankees south circa 2013 will continue to struggle…

The reason I call these Phillies “wanna be Yankees” is because of the number of ex-bombers who are on this roster, plus the mindset that is influencing the decision making, it’s old Yankee-thinking. The thinking is get a star lefty bat who is a Rockstar in Harper, Didi’s connection to the Bronx, Girardi’s connection to the Bronx, and Dave Dombrowski tried to take down the Yankees as the GM of the Red Sox post Theo Epstein.

Also, the higher ups in Philadelphia DO NOT want to rebuild and want to try to win with the roster they have. Which reminds me of the post 2009 Yankees. As currently constructed, it won’t work to the level that some people in the organization might want.  

17. Washington Nationals 74-88

Washington’s penance for winning the 2018 World Series will continue in 2021. The Nats sold their future for short-term success. It worked and this is the payment for being immortalized. The core of their rotation is a year older and while they will win Washington games because Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin are awesome. Juan Soto is a SUPER STAR and will be in the MVP conversation even though his team won’t come close to .500. The top two teams in the NL East are that much better and will be able to beat the rest of the rotation and below average bullpen.

Juan Soto needs some help, and this season will add a mid-first round pick as the Nationals continue to rebuild mode.

16. Boston Red Sox 79-83

The Red Sox will be better than people expect this year. They will still finish fourth in the division, but they still have pieces that can win ball games in a brutal division.

Bogartes, Devers, J.D. Martinez, Sale, and Rodriguez is still an elite core of guys who will steal games away from the heavy hitters at the top of the division. The front office has a different direction than the fanbase has for this team and it will be a battle for the players to be stuck in the middle of. Whether Martinez or Bogartes will finish the season in Boston is up in the air but playing close to .500 baseball is actually a plus for this team because it will give the prospects a valuable building block for the Red Sox next window of contention.

15. Chicago Cubs 81-81

The Cubs will be the Cubs of the last three years. They haven’t changed much since their curse breaking World Series run and the pieces that have left are key contributors on that World Series winning club. Plus, the Cubs have to deal with star players getting older.

Rizzo is a year older; Jason Hayward is a year older, Baez and Bryant had down years and are looking to bounce back (they also might not be in Chicago by seasons end), and David Ross needs to prove that his knowledge behind the plate translates to the dugout. Their rotation is going to suffer because beside Kyle Hendricks because they don’t have enough guys to get through the marathon of 162. I think the median point is exactly where they will end up. They won’t be too good and they won’t be too bad. They will be mediocre but have upside to turn their organization around if they get more arms. Go Cubs Go!

14.  Oakland Athletics 83-79

Filling the shoes of Liam Hendricks will be a race that will take the entire season to win. That is Oakland’s season goal is to have a life beyond Hendricks. Oakland also lost their MVP overall as Marcus Semien goes north of the border to play in Toronto. Semien has missed a total of 10 games over the past three seasons, with seven of them coming last year. His durability and All-Star level play is almost impossible to replace.

The spot that Oakland is in isn’t as bad as the 2001 season depicted in “Moneyball” but it is damn close. The A’s are still a small market team besides the amount of winning they have done since the beginning of the analytical era. Billy Beane is long gone, and the new Oakland Brain Trust will have to piece together another round of Moneyball baseball to figure out how they can continue to win games after losing their biggest contributors since Damon and Giambi.

Oakland has enough starting pitching to be competitive, but their loses, including trading Kris Davis for basically nothing, will add up to be too much for this ball club to be ahead of the curve of.  

13. Los Angeles Angels 84-78

L.A. has finally given Mike Trout his best overall roster.

Perry Minasian has put together an intriguing team to watch (I’m thankful for my ESPN+ subscription) which will not be watched by majority of the casual fans because they will be asleep. The Angles have been one of favorite teams to keep tabs on in the past few years because of the talent that has been assembled around Trout. I liked the additions that they made last year and thought they’d be good enough to be in playoff contention in a regular season with Joe Madden’s leadership.

Add another good offseason of smart, culture building, and reliable players to the mix and the pipedream of Mike Trout playing playoff baseball looks like it could become reality. Trout has said 2020 was a down year (take that with a grain of salt, the country had a down year) and the entire roster didn’t look they were on the same page as Joe Madden. That happens with the way Madden runs his clubs, it happened in Chicago the first year with the Cubs, so I think given another year, the L.A. Angles of Anaheim will be where I thought they would be in 2020; right in the mix of things.

12. St. Louis Cardinals 87-75  

Nolan Arenado is the difference maker!

This is St. Louis’ time to begin a very short window to try to win a title. Their rotation is not the best in the game, but it has enough great quality arms to win ball games in a division where majority of the teams are on the decline. The Reds are not there anymore, the Cubs are taking a step back, so the Cardinals will take over that position to battle Milwaukee for the division title. Goldschmidt is still a fantastic 1^st baseman, Paul DeJong is a really good up and coming shortstop, Yadi is back behind the plate, and adding Arenado to that mix is a great cocktail for a successful season.

11. Milwaukee Brewers 90-72

The Brew Crew will still be that top dog.

Christian Yelich is still a top 10 player, Cain will bounce back from a miserable pandemic season, stealing Wong from the Cards is huge and will add another layer to their rivalry, and their staff as a whole is massively underrated. Still having Avisail Garcia as a power bat is huge, Ryan Braun is still a decent enough player, they are just an awesome team! Milwaukee hasn’t lost any players from last years team and adding Wong solves their second base and shortstop issue. Hiura is a better shortstop than a second baseman and adding Wong adds a guy who can be a kick-starter for the Brewer lineup which will allow Huira to relax a little be more comfortable in his roll. Milwaukee is not a championship team, but they are a solid playoff team.

10. Houston Astros 97-65

With fans attending games, I don’t think the Astros will get a pass for their cheating scandal that came to the forefront at the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020.

Houston was given hell in every Spring Training game they played before the pandemic hit the country. The noise went away when human interaction went away at the beginning of last year. Joe Kelly was the only player to truly challenge this Astros team for cheating the game. Fans never forget and I believe that fans will continue giving Houston the hell they deserve even though this years Astros team looks different than in years past. I don’t think it’ll matter and will join in on the “boo-ing” whether it’s in front of my tv or in a stadium if I get to see them play (fingers crossed!).

Even with my thoughts on the Astros, they are still a damn good team and have no proven challenger to their division title. Verlander is back, Greinke is an ageless wonder, and the core up the middle, Correa and Altuve, Bregman is a top 20 player, and Yordan Alvarez is still dangerous. However, you view the Houston Astros doesn’t matter they have talent and are very good at using that talent to be one of the best teams in baseball year in and out.

9. New York Mets 96-66

I’ve been high on the talent in Flushing for some years now, and through my girlfriend, have watched this team a lot over the past two years.

The talent on this roster is no joke. Talent wise they are a Top Five team in baseball before the addition of Francisco Lindor. Their rotation is a Top Three staff in the game. The issues with the Mets is having an American League lineup for the National League, the question mark in the closer role, and the inexperience that manager Luis Rojas has in the job. IF the Mets have a decent bullpen, they will hit the mark of 96 wins or somewhere close that mark. Even if a teeter-totter ‘pen the Metropolitans will be in the playoff picture come September.  

8. Chicago White Sox 97-65

The White Sox showed something in last years playoffs. It might not have been seen by most of the casual fan base, but I saw their coming out party to the rest of the league.

The Chi-Sox young group got some playoff innings which matters. They also have the reigning MVP of the American League. They are already a good team. What will make a difference is the additions of Lance Lynn, Liam Hendriks, and new manager Tony La Russa.

7. Minnesota Twins 98-64

The Minnesota Twins of the late 2010’s and the beginning of this decade are the Dallas Cowboys of the last two decades: Consistent.

Minnesota is a mid-market team that is playing like a Super Team and will continue to do so in 2021. The problem for the Twins is that they don’t have enough pitching throughout their staff to keep up with the fire power that their offense can provide. The other problem that Minnesota has is one that majority of clubs have in that they rely on home runs too often to be the totality of their offense. Home runs are not a bad thing, but not having the ability to score runs in other ways is a drastic problem. Losing a guy like Eddie Rosario will only make their lineup diversity less, which again is a problem. The Twins are going to be a good team and will battle a weak division to pad their win totals, but what will push Minnesota into the realm of a legit title contender is a deeper pitching staff and the ability to create runs while keeping the ball in the yard.

6. Atlanta Braves 97-65

For a minute in the NLCS, the Braves looked like the best team in baseball.

Then, Mookie Betts and the Dodgers kicked their championship team into gear and rode into the sunset with the commissioner’s trophy. The Braves are built for a long term with their young core of Freeman, Acuna, and Albes. Their young pitching staff also got valuable postseason innings and the Braves should be careful about their collective usage to start off the year but have enough fantastic young arms to get through the long grind. Dansby Swanson also looked like he went to another level, the level he was expected to be at as a former overall number one pick.

I really like the Braves talent and they are still the best team in their division to me, they are a lock for the playoffs, it’s a matter how the club responds to a tough out from last years playoffs. They have the talent to win a World Series, whether or not they put it together, is the reason we play the games.  

5. New York Yankees 96-66

I hope I am wrong. I REALLY hope I am wrong here as a fan. Objectively, the Yanks are the 5^th best team in baseball.  

I am hedging against the glued together pitching staff that Brian Cashman and the Bomber front office have decided is good enough for 2021. That is not how pitching works and is as bright of a red flag as possible. Yes, the Yankees are good enough offensively to go on a run in the regular season where they look like they can never lose, but they will also have a run where this pieced together staff will implode where the offense won’t matter. The other piece that I am hedging against the trainers that have not yet fixed the injury issues of Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. I hope that Judge and Stanton play in 50-60 percent of the games in 2021, but I don’t know if my wishful thinking will actually play out…  

4. Tampa Bay Rays 97-65

Tampa Bay will still be in the conversation this year. How much, like a lot of teams, depends on the health of their pitching.

Trading Blake Snell is not helping their chances at piecing together a staff that could be healthy enough come postseason time, but this is Tampa Bay, the Rays will find some player we have never heard of will be an important contributor. Tampa has enough bullpen arms to pitch their way through the regular season but saving enough bullets from those high-quality arms for another pennant race will be Kevin Cashs’ number one problem for 2021. 

3. Toronto Blue Jays 99-63

Toronto has not so quietly had an excellent offseason.

They have the perfect mixture of hungry young guys, proven All-Star talents, and proven winners in September. The addition of George Springer I think is the biggest signing for one club in the entire league. The reason for that is because the Jays are coming off a first-round sweep from last years playoffs and Springer has won a lot and been the reason his team has won in October, see his 2017 World Series MVP (even has an asterisk attached to it), what he can do for this spectacular young core is an unvaluable asset that their getting in his contract.

Marcus Semien is the most overqualified second baseman in the league, he will be there every day and show a level of professionalism that goes hand in hand with Springer’s addition—Semien also has limited playoff experience.

The rotation has a lot of unproven guys who are looking to make a statement with their 2021 season. Ryu is a stud, but everyone behind him until Kirby Yates is a question mark. That’s not ideal and might have many of you scratching your head as to why I have them as the third best team in baseball, but it’s enough to keep them in games. Steven Matz has been to a World Series and is a consistent guy who could have a handful of great starts, Tanner Roark, and Robby Ray are in the same boat. Their bullpen has a move or two to be made come trade season but trading a guy like Randel Grichuck could land them a power arm in July.

I love the offseason that Toronto has done, I am well aware of picking the team that has won the offseason as a Spring Training favorite, but this team was a playoff team last year. Adding the type of incredible players to a roster that was already a playoff team—who is very young—and has an untapped hunger is a dangerous combination. Good luck to the best of the American League.

2. San Diego Padres 100-62

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: The San Diego Padres have won the offseason.

This time is pointing to be different but let me just put this disclaimer in here as my get out of jail free card.

Like Toronto, San Diego was a playoff team last year and added a ton of pitching depth to an already good staff. Losing Yates is big but replacing his production with other arms in the pen and rotation will make up for what they have lost. Fernando Tatis will have a $340 Million bullseye on his back for the rest of his career starting this year, but having Machado earning $300 Million right next door at third base and how it can be handled is something that is on the side of Tatis and San Diego. I love the chip that Blake Snell will have on his shoulder every time he takes the mound this year, I like adding Yu Darvish as the best number three starter in the league. The rest of the team all the glue guys are also guys that I would love to have on my team. Guys like Eric Hosmer, Austin Nola, Jurickson Profar, and Tommy Pham are guys who are the perfect compliment to the star power of Machado and Tatis. I am betting high on San Diego and praying this is not 2015.

1. Los Angeles Dodgers 104-58

The Dodgers finally have a ring! The wait is over. After years of hunting championship champagne, they have tasted it, and now must defend.

My opinion about the best team going into the season is always who ever won the championship the year before. However, the Dodgers have added to their awesomeness. Bolstering their rotation with Bauer’s historic contract and making their entire pitching staff loaded for the marathon of 162 which will feel like 324 games because of the number of innings that will be needed after 2020. The Dodgers might be the only team that has the amount of pitching needed to finish the 2021 season. I’m not making any bold predictions in February about the Dodgers repeating, but they are the best team in baseball for the regular season. Massive injuries aside *knock on wood* there is already one team who has its ticket punch for the dance in October.

  I’m ready for baseball to be back in my everyday life, here’s to hoping we get to see all 162!