2021 NFL Over/Under Picks

A week away from a full slate of NFL Games let’s take a look at the six Over/Unders that I like the most based on the lines but out by DraftKings Sportsbook. After going .500 in my futures last year, I am primed to have a bounce back season and win some money. I don’t love the board, but these are the best of best in the order that I like them, so let’s get into it:

Washington Football Team-8.5 O (-120)/U (+100): OVER

Personally, I don’t enjoy trusting my money in the hands of Ryan Fitzpatrick, but the rest of the skills players on offense, how incredible the defensive line is, and the coaching ability of Ron Rivera I trust that team will win the NFC East for a second straight year.

This division is going to be awful again, and Ryan Fitzpatrick can turn the clock back to 2015 with the wide receiving core that he has he can have another special year playing himself into another contract.

However, this over pick is all about the defense. Chase Young is an absolute monster leading to what can be a Defensive Player of the Year campaign where he could lead the league in tackles for a loss this year. Young looks like the second coming of Aaron Donald just bigger and potentially stronger. Adrian Payne and Montez Sweat will aid Young making quarterbacks afternoons nightmares. All the pressure that this front line can create, I wouldn’t be shocked if the interception numbers for the defensive backs be at the top of the leaderboard at seasons end. Washington was a playoff team last year and the with the track record of Ron Rivera, the sky is the limit for this Washington Football Team (I hate you Dan Snyder for sticking with that name!).

Baltimore Ravens-11 O (+100)/U (-120): UNDER

This bet is not an anti-Lamar Jackson bet as it’s an anti-skill player and defense bet. I love what Lamar Jackson can do on a week-to-week basis and I think John Harbaugh is one of the best coaches in the league. I just don’t believe in everyone else.

J.K. Dobbins to me is a year away from being a legit running back, I don’t trust Sammy Watkins to stay healthy as a number one target for a full season. Plus, Baltimore’s defense lost a ton of key pieces specifically Matthew Judon who looks like he’s going to be a beast in New England. The last note on Baltimore is the COVID situation with a bunch of their players. If Lamar Jackson tests positive and is out for two games the over is seems extremely unlikely.

Looking at the Ravens schedule I think the finish somewhere around 9-7.

Indianapolis Colts-9 O (+100)/U (-120): UNDER

Frank Reich will be in the conversation for the first coach fired based off their first four weeks. Playing the two top dogs in the NFC West in back-to-back weeks is a brutal way to start a season for any team, going to Tennessee who was a playoff team with an offense that got even better than a year before right after that, and what Miami can do on both sides of the ball makes me think that the Colts will be 0-4 through the first quarter of the season.

The jury is still out on Carson Wentz and even if he is 40% of what he was in the Eagles Super Bowl year (which was four years ago) the weapons surrounding around Wentz isn’t enough to compete in the AFC South excluding Jonathan Taylor (if he can stay healthy). Michael Pittman will be a good receiver in this league but is about a year and half away in my opinion.

On the defensive side of the ball they are good, but will be on the field a ton and will be burnt out in the second half of the year. Frank Reich is a good coach, it’s just the end of the road in Indianapolis for him.

Atlanta Falcons-7.5 O (-110)/U (-110): UNDER

Atlanta will be the worst team in football. Julio Jones’ presence will be missed, Russell Gage is a decent receiver that will be a good daily fantasy weapon, but I think is a year away from being a legitimate option for Matt Ryan. Speaking of Matty Ice, I don’t trust him at all anymore; he reminds me of Philip Rivers from last year and to me, if you trust your money in hands like that, you’ll get what you pay for…

Atlanta’s defense couldn’t stop anyone last year and pretty much nothing has changed due to the salary cap bind that the 28-3 Falcons put them in.

Tampa Bay is the best team in the league and they’re running it back for a chance to repeat. Carolina will be sneaky good because Sam Darnold finally has an offense and a coach that believes in him. Jameis Winston is good enough to keep New Orleans in the conversation for a playoff spot, and all of them could beat up on Atlanta six times this year. Looking at their schedule I think the lonely Falcons will muster only two wins this year.

L.A. Rams-10.5 O (+110)/U (-130): OVER

On the other end of the spectrum the Rams could be the best team in football when the playoffs start in January. Looking at their schedule I predict 13-4. I love the Rams this year. That isn’t a hot take, Sean McVay and his revamped offense is the darling of everybody this year.

The reason I love this team is because I still love Matthew Stafford. He is still on the top of the list of quarterbacks I want leading my team. Stafford still has a cannon and it wasn’t too long ago that he was slinging the ball to Calvin Johnson. The only downfall for those Lions teams was coaching and defense. The Rams coach and defense this year is worlds ahead of Jim Caldwell and a terrible Detroit defense for the entirety of Stafford’s Detroit tenure. Stafford finally has a good car and pit crew to keep it going.

Chicago Bears-7.5 O (+105)/ U (-125): OVER

This bet is solely because of Justin Fields. Even though Chicago is going to take it on the chin in week one to the aforementioned Rams, Justin Fields will be starting in Chicago before week 4 and will transform this team into a borderline playoff contender. I’m not saying this Chicago Bears team is going to be in the playoffs for a second consecutive year, but they will be close thanks to the sheer ability of Justin Fields.

Fields is a gamer and will be loved in Chicago for years to come. The days of Mitchell Trubisky are over and the receiving room with the Bears should be popping champagne if they haven’t already. With Fields, the Bears will put up points, and with Mack on the defensive line with a decent defense behind him will not allow that many points.

The future in Chicago is bright and so is this over of 7.5!

The 2021 NFL season is here and let’s rejoice that we will have appointment viewing every Sunday until early February. Best of luck to all your teams, all your future bets, and all your bets moneyline or against the spread! Happy Football!!