10 Rules to Help you Navigate Wild Card Weekend

 Welcome to the time of year where the brutal cold and snow has ushered many of us inside to stoke fireplaces, fill mugs with warm tea or hot chocolate, and to huddle together under a nice blanket to watch playoff football. Last year, I put out a Gambling Column with 12 Rules to help the readers of this column win money when put in the position we are at right now. This year, most of those rules are still applicable, but will be shown out of order. However, here are some of those rules that will not be used:

Rule No. 9: Back Joe Burrow at every turn because he is basically Superman in the playoffs unless the opponent is hosting a home Super Bowl.

Rule No. 10: NEVER EVER, EVER BET AGAINST TOM BRADY. NEVER EVEN THINK ABOUT. Live by this rule if it’s the only rule you listen to.

 

CLE (-2.5) @ HOU

Nothing like the first playoff game of the weekend to highlight two of the staples’ rules of Playoff Football Gambling that make this game a tad bit conflicting: Rule No. 1: It’s Hard to beat a team twice in a year much less three times. Let’s go into the way back machine to Christmas Eve 2023 when the Browns went into Houston and Amari Cooper played flag football against the Texans defense. That won’t happen again. Houston will be ready for Cooper. But will they be able to cover Cooper while also blanking David Njoku and Elijah Moore? Cleveland can also run averaging 120 yards per game while Houston gave up around 96 yards per game defensively.

Rule No. 3: Never trust a rookie quarterback making a playoff start unless their names are Mark Sanchez or Robert Griffin III. Sorry CJ Stroud, you are the shoe-in for Offensive Rookie of the Year but fall victim to this rule and I will be beating against you because not only are you a rookie QB making your first playoff start, but also because the Browns own the best defense in the NFL.

Another reason to back the Browns is they’ve been there before. Joe Flacco has a Super Bowl, Kevin Stefanski has gone toe-to-toe with Kansas City Chiefs in Arrowhead. This is the first go-around for a Texans that was the surprise of the season. Defense wins championships and it will win again in Houston on Saturday afternoon.

 

KC (-4) vs MIA

Rule No. 4: Take a REAL close look at the coaches and quarterbacks in each game and pick the combo you trust more. Then look again and determine who is in the ultimate circle of trust. Patrick Mahomes will FOREVER be in the ultimate circle of trust. He may even supplant Tom Brady for Rule No. 10 of this column. This is the biggest disadvantage when it comes to quarterback-coach combinations for the playoff’s matchups for “Super” Wild Card weekend. Add in the fact the Dolphins are signing pass rushers off the street, Jalen Waddle will play but what version of Waddle will Miami be getting with his ankle injury, AND the temperature for this game will be one of the coldest on record for a football game. Yes, both teams have to play in the weather, and -15 on the field will still feel the same for Kadrius Toney as it does for Raheem Mostert, but Kansas City has played in more cold weather games and has had more success in the brutal January temperatures.

BUF (-10) vs PIT  

This game also has some conflicting rules… Rule No. 7: If a team has memorable playoff losses due to special teams, there’s something in the cloth of the jerseys that will never go away. I’m sorry to keep beating the dead horse in Buffalo that is Super Bowl XXV, but that just doesn’t go away. Especially since this game could be played in Cleveland because of weather in upstate New York, this should be factored in.

But on the other side… Rule No. 8: Take EVERY chance you get to bet against Kirk Cousins, Mitch Trubisky, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill, Nathan Peterman, or Andy Dalton.

Look I get it, Trubisky is on the team but won’t be starting in Buffalo, Mason Rudolph will. It might not take long to add Rudolph’s name to the list above. Pittsburgh does get the raw end of the deal—especially with the TJ Watt injury, but playoff football isn’t about fairness. I’ve faded Buffalo every chance I’ve had this year but what a better time to hop on the Bills Mafia bandwagon like an old country Western villain than right now! Nobody circle’s the wagons better and they will crush the Steel Curtain will a ballpein hammer all the way back to Pittsburgh. Think of these conflicting rules as offsetting penalties and I’ll also give a quick look at Rule No. 4 to help me back Buffalo wherever the game is played.

GB (+7.5) @ DAL

This is just too easy! This game was out of central casting. I mean c’mon! We have a little bit of Rule No. 7 with Tony Romo against Seattle in 2005-06 playoffs, but you can also chalk that up to the countless number of examples of Dallas imploding in the postseason. Dallas is also facing this: Rule No. 11: If you get to bet against Wade Phillips, Mike McCarthy, Marvin Lewis, Jim Caldwell, Bill O’Brien, Jason Garrett, Matt Nagy, Adam Gase, or any coach that looks like they are watching their car get towed anytime they get pan to on the sidelines. One of my favorite past-times when watching any football game is laugh at the decision Mike McCarthy makes when he coaches his team. There might not be a coach worse at clock management than McCarthy. It’s amazing that he did enough to win a Super Bowl. He maybe the coaching equivalent of Trent Dilfer.

Rule No. 12: If the Cowboys are the favorites in a playoff game pick the underdog without thinking. Reread that rule and hit the “complete bet” button on your phone.

 

DET (-3) vs LAR

I apologize to Matthew Stafford. I loved watching you with the Lions, I liked watching you set records with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua with the Rams. However, Stafford, Sean McVay, and Aaron Darnold are walking into Ford Field battling against not just the Lions but 30 years of karma. Rule No. 5: If an off the field event is the rallying cry for a team DO NOT BET AGAINST KARMA. Detroit hasn’t won in the postseason in FOREVER and now the Lions have to go through Matthew Stafford (?) you can’t write this stuff! I will never bet against this type of karma.

Rule No. 6: If there is a team that is young and hungry with a one in a lifetime coach ride them ‘til the end of the road.

Alright, fine, Dan Campbell might not be a once in a lifetime coach, but the Lions are not hungry—they are starving for playoff success. This will be the biggest test for L.A. all season and we will get another test for his coaching prowess and the first real test for Campbell. This for me is the game of the weekend and hopefully it’ll be a great weekend for the Honolulu Blue.

TB (+3) vs PHI

Finally! We’ve reached the “Super” Wild Card Weekend finale on Monday Night. Side note, whatever marketing person decided to name the first NFL Playoff Weekend “Super” shouldn’t be allowed to make public facing decisions. But let’s get to truly a confusing game.

On one you have a team that went to the Super Bowl last year, with a quarterback looking for playoff revenge, and a play in the playbook that is absolutely unstoppable. However, in Philadelphia there is trouble in paradise. Something isn’t working and nobody on the outside world knows why. But the good faith that the Eagles have collected over the past 18 months leads the public to blindly follow Philly off a cliff.

Rule No. 2: When finished with your research and you are against the public TRUST THAT RESEARCH AND INSTINCTS!

On the other side, you have Todd Bowles, Baker Mayfield, and a band of characters nobody has ever heard of. This game though is being played in Tampa Bay. Home field doesn’t matter much anymore—but it does when the road team is a slight bit off. The Eagles cannot rely on six-year old’s calling Chris Godwin every curse word under the sun. Instead, Philadelphia will have to hear cannons being fired off every time Mike Evans scores a touchdown.

Ultimately the reason why I’m backing Tampa Bay is because the Eagles are unraveling at the wrong time.