2024-25 NFL Over/Unders

 

With the official start of the football season performed last night in Kansas City, in dramatic fashion, it’s time to give my favorite over/under bets for the brand-new season.

The past two years I have failed you, my dear reader, with the picks that I have ushered out. This year I need to go back to the basics, keep it as simple, and not try to get cute. So, this year I have only even money or plus money bets. I believe in my conviction with these picks and look to get back into the green and ace as many of these five picks. Welcome back to football and welcome back to the team win over/under column! All of the numbers used in this column and be found on ESPN Bet.

 

The Unders:

Let’s start with the bad and the ugly. Because while teams like the Chiefs, the Lions, the Jets (hopefully), and the Ravens will showcase the highest level of production football has to offer, must football fans don’t have the pleasure of watching good or great football on a weekly basis. Most of us watch the game of football that looks like a completely different sport when compared to witnessing Patrick Mahomes.

New England Patriots: UNDER 4.5 (+110)

As a Jet fan, this isn’t a vindictive pick. Will I root for the downfall of the Patriots because of what I’ve been subjected to basically my entire Jet fandom, absolutely! But if you ask Patriots fans and I’m sure even some people in the building in Foxborough, they don’t want this team to be good. If you watched any of New England’s preseason games or read anything around Patriots training camp; this team is the opposite of a Bill Belichick team on the field.

The Patriots cannot block on offense. They cannot really stop anyone on defense. And they don’t have a quarterback under center. They should have a quarterback but rookie first round draft pick, Drake Maye, is not starting the season because rookie head Jarod Mayo isn’t confident in the offensive line to keep the presumptive future of the franchise upright. New England is going to be bad, they want to be bad, so why are we getting them at plus money? *Insert Brian Windhorst First Take meme* It’s because this team doesn’t have talent. The wide receiver room is one of the worst in the NFL. Defensively, they traded Matthew Judon who was their best defender and Christian Barmore who was Judon’s robin in the pass rush is on injured reserve due to blood cuts. The Patriots number one corner, last years’ first round pick, Christian Gonzalez is coming off a year riddled with injuries so who knows what he’ll be in his sophomore campaign. Oh, and they have a rookie head coach in a division that has Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers in it.

I could continue but I can feel the curser slowly starting to edge to the top right of your screen. Let’s continue with the NFL filth!

Carolina Panthers UNDER 5.5 (Even money)

Let’s do a quick history lesson for those who haven’t really paid attention to the Carolina Panthers since David Tepper bought the franchise in July of 2018.

2018: 7-9

2019: 5-11

2020: 5-11

2021: 5-12

2022: 7-10

2023: 2-15

Translation: the Carolina Panthers are a bad football team and there are no signs of them getting better. But, for our exercise, let’s focus on last years’ 2-15 season. Carolina traded up to get the number one overall pick before last years’ draft to select Bryce Young. Young who was the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and was looked at as the “Steph Curry of football.” Young looked massively overwhelmed for most of last season. That is not uncommon for rookie quarterbacks, even quarterbacks that are high picks. I raise you the now infamous Payton Manning rookie campaign. But the Panthers didn’t have a first-round pick in April’s draft to help Young get better this season. The Panthers fired their head coach, hired a rookie head coach, and will now give Bryce Young a second offense to learn in two years—which for me personally is the cardinal sin for young quarterbacks. So why would I have faith in an organization that has failed for the past five seasons and aren’t necessarily showing signs of turning it around or doing anything to help their young and cheap quarterback to succeed? Sprint to the window to cash this bet.  

Miami Dolphins UNDER 9.5 (+115)

This one is for my guy Gordon Damer. For the past two years I have been subjected to belligerent Jet hate, but even more than that, belligerent Dolphin hate from Gordon, who is and this is important, a huge Dolphin fan. At every turn Gordon would bet against his beloved Dolphins (literally with his own hard-earned cash) even when times seemed to be good in South Beach. It is now time for me to do the same. Every fanbase can sit on Reddit when the NFL schedule comes out each  April and bitch and moan and say the same thing “we have such a hard schedule!” Even the now spoiled Kansas City Chiefs fans do this. But in the situation of Gordon Damer and the rest of Dolphin fans—they have a case for the hardest schedule… kind of.

The first two-thirds of Miami’s schedule is extremely easy having to play the Titans, Cardinals, Patriots, and Raiders. But the final month and half is up there with the hardest gauntlet in football. Having to play the Packers, Texans, 49’ers, Browns, and Jets twice is not how you want to enter the playoffs. Especially with trips to Green Bay and Cleveland in late December/early January. If Miami slips up in any of the easy part of their schedule the Dolphins are in deep trouble.

Given the exercise we just went through with the Carolina Panthers, you might be saying “hey Joe, wait, didn’t the Dolphins set the world on fire with their offensive firepower last season?” Well, yes, they did for the first two months. As Gordon might put it “the Dolphins are the best team in football in September and October but fail miserably in December and January.” If you look at it year after year, Gordon’s declaration about his beloved Dolphins tracks, because he’s watched them for more than 40 years. This might be because of the now well-known stat about the correlation of play for the Dolphins to the temperature they are playing in.

Add in the fact that the Dolphins lost their two best defensive line players (Christian Wilkins and Emmanuel Ogbah), their best corner (Xavien Howard), a key Offensive Lineman (Robert Hunt), and two key linebackers (Jerome Baker and Andrew Van Ginkel). Miami has also handed over a big bag of money to Jalen Ramsey and Tua Tagovailoa which has limited them in getting better for the season ahead. Even if the Ramsey contract was announced earlier this morning.

The time for Miami to truly compete against the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs is over. So, what you should do is take the under on this version of the Dolphins.

The Overs:

Enough of the bad football, let’s talk about some winners! These two teams have been two of the model franchises of the recent football past. So, I ask you, why are they both plus money? I don’t know, but let’s run from the bank due to a rare mistake from the bookmakers.

Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 8.5 (+135)

There are few things in life that are constants. Some are death, taxes, and Mike Tomlin having a winning record. As a head coach, Mike Tomlin has never, let me repeat, Mike Tomlin has never had a losing season. He has done this with the latter years of Ben Roethlisberger—who was basically a human tackling dummy—Mason Rudolph, Delvin Hodges, and Kenny Pickett. To have a winning record with those four, that is what good coaching looks like. Tomlin alone is good for a win or two because of how good he is at out coaching the group standing across the sidelines from him.

If the Steelers can go over .500 the group of signal callers above, Russell Wilson on the back nine of his career shouldn’t be any worse. Wilson in a down year and a year in which he was benched, still threw for 3,000+ yards, 26 touchdowns, and only turned the ball over nine times (eight interceptions and one lost fumble). That is good enough for a lot of teams in the NFL but will be Terry Bradshaw for the Steelers compared to Pickett and Rudolph.  

This Pittsburgh defense isn’t the Steel Curtain by any means, but it is still a good defense that will keep the offense in the game or save the day when needed. The beginning of the schedule is extremely easy for Tomlin and company. The last two months is difficult but not impossible to get wins due to the nature of Tomlin and the AFC North as a division. This division year after year beats the living hell out of each other no matter the circumstances. Nine wins might not be good enough to get into the playoffs, but that’s a different conversation. A conversation not worth having here, but let’s make some money on nine wins.

San Francisco 49’ers OVER 11.5 (+130)

To say San Francisco had a turbulent offseason would be an understatement. Not having your left tackle and leading wide receiver all training camp and preseason isn’t a formula to hush a potential Super Bowl hangover. A hangover that was induced by losing in overtime to Kansas City when all the 49’ers had to do was defer and get the ball second. But that was last year.

This year San Francisco still have the most talented teams on both sides of the ball in the NFL regardless of who the coordinators are and even if Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk spent all offseason disgruntled over their contracts. The 49’ers still have one of the best coaches in the league and still have a stranglehold on the NFC West. It seems like this years’ San Francisco 49’ers are on a mission to rewrite the discussion about who they are. With this collection of talent and the schedule laid out in front of them, they are my number one seed in the NFC and the road to New Orleans will run through Levi Stadium.

There it is! My chance at redemption for two poor showings in back-to-back years. Happy football to everyone who celebrates, and may your team win unless you root for a team on my unders list or play the New York Jets.