What baseball will look like from here on

The MVP is an award that sports fans hold highly year in and year out, and this year in Major League Baseball it is no different. The compelling differences in the American League MVP race is something that is driving me crazy.

Now, comparing my picks from early September to now as the Major Baseball Awards were given out for 2017, they really don’t look any different. I picked Kershaw and Kluber for the Cy Youngs, Bellinger and Judge for the Rookies of the Year, Torey Lovullo and A.J. Hinch for the Coaches of the Year, and I couldn’t pick between Giancarlo Stanton and Nolan Arenado (Arenado didn’t even get considered in the Top Three), but picked Jose Altuve for the AL MVP. I officially settled on Stanton for the NL MVP so that would give me six out of the eight correct for awards. Looking at the two I got wrong, I looked at the numbers and couldn’t argue with the baseball writers for why they went the way they went. The writers went with the same storyline with Coach of the Year with both Lovullo and Twins manager Paul Molitor. Molitor lead the Twins to a Wild Card berth after finishing with the worst record in the majors [59-103] a year ago. This was the first time in Major League History that a team finished a season with over 100 losses one year and made it to the playoffs the following season.

The first award that I looked back and researched was the Cy Young. I have been reading ‘Ahead of the Curve’ a book written by MLB Networks Brian Kenny and after reading a majority of it I resend my pick of Clayton Kershaw now. That’s not saying I have hind sight 20/20 but it’s a matter of looking at other statistics. Those two statistics are ERA+ and FIP.

ERA+ is a player ERA adjusted for the ballpark that they pitch in and FIP stands for Fielding Independent Pitching—which is fancy baseball talk for the “three true outcomes.” Those outcomes are a homerun, walk, and strike out. Comparing Kershaw’s ERA+ and FIP to Scherzer’s there is one of the reasons why Scherzer got the award. Scherzer had a 177 ERA+ to Kershaw’s 180. ERA+ is not like the regular earned run average; if a player’s number is higher it’s better. Moving to FIP, it’s another close race. Kershaw has a 3.07 to Scherzer’s 2.90 (which is 4^th in all of the Majors). Add Scherzer leading the Majors in strike outs [268], his 200.2 innings, and his 2.51 ERA he is the clear choice for the National League Cy Young.

As the baseball writers get younger and younger and the generations move on, the awards will reflect the statistics even more than they do now. This movement is exactly like the movement in the NBA to small lineups that can shoot a high percentage of three pointers. The statistical movement is making its way into the dugouts across baseball and has been in the press boxes for some time now. This Cy Young pick is a look into the future of what matters to writers when they vote for not only the yearly awards but the Hall of Fame.

With players like Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and David Ortiz making their way onto the Hall of Fame ballot in the next few years, I think the way voters value the “steroid era” will be seen in a different light. I think it will take until year eight or nine until those three players get the 75% that they need to get in, but I don’t think they will face the same criticism as Bonds, Sosa, and Clemons did. Bonds and Clemons might get in with this new veterans committee at some point after A-Rod, Manny, and Big Papi get in; but it’s not inconceivable anymore that all six of these alleged and proven steroid users will get into the hall.

This is a trend that the new era of baseball writers doesn’t mind the use of steroids. But, like dirty hits in the NFL the baseball writers now know that steroids have no place in the game. Unlike what the NFL is doing, Major League Baseball is has a system in place to combat the steroid users.   

In this new age of sabermetrics and highly valuing statistics, it’s causing uproars and online/phone call riots from the old “get off my lawn” baseball fans. “Money Ball” is the new way of baseball now. It started with  You saw it in the World Series with the way both A.J. Hinch and Dave Roberts “scripted their teams” to try and win the game. Roberts played more to his “script” than Hinch did, but it is apparent that this is the way baseball is heading. Managers are being hired for their knowledge and willingness to follow the numbers. But, some baseball fans just don’t want to hear anything to do with shifts, game scripts, WAR, or FIP. There is nothing you can do to convince these guys and its part of the reason why there has been such an uprising on why Aaron Judge didn’t win the AL MVP.

These people love just looking at the regular Home Runs, RBI’s, and Batting Average and go on with their day. There are a bunch of New Yorkers who are in an uproar that Judge didn’t win because he is a Yankee.

I’m not going to sit here and say that there isn’t an “East Coast bias” because there totally is, but Judge wasn’t the best player in the Major Leagues. It wasn’t because his two and half week slump that he went on, it was more than that. It was the fact that Judge had a lesser WAR, a lesser Defensive WAR, and the number of strike outs Judge had. Judge had an 8.1 WAR, a 0.3 Defensive WAR, and a league high 208 strike outs. Compare that to Altuve’s 8.3 WAR, a 0.7 Defensive WAR of 0.7, and only 84 strike outs. Pile on Altuve’s league leading .346 average, 4^th consecutive year leading the American League in hits with 204, and his 32 stolen bases Altuve was the best player in Major League Baseball.

I watched Aaron Judge each and every day that he played in 2017. I was in awe every time he hit a 500-foot home run, nevertheless the 52 home run that he hit to break the All-Time Rookie record. Yes, Judge did lead the American League in runs scored and walks, but are we forgetting that Judge is a rookie? Did we forget that Judge was on the lesser team? Jose Altuve was the best player on a 100-win team. Aaron Judge was the best player on a team that made the Wild Card Game. Winning matters when it comes to MVP’s. The Bronx Bombers didn’t win more than the Astros in the regular season. All of it matters, and some of it (like the teams wins) matter more than others.

The notion that Judge has to win because he had a higher OPS, more homers, and more walks doesn’t add up to the body of work that Altuve had in 2017. And that’s perfectly fine, the East Coast bias always doesn’t have to be the deciding factor because odds are unless you live in Houston’s market, you’ve seen Aaron Judge play more than Altuve.

Aaron Judge plays for the New York Yankees and happens to be a budding Super Star in baseball, he is going to get more attention. Add in his mesurables which have never been seen before in the game of baseball, I mean he is a defensive lineman playing right field, but he will get more attention than Altuve in Houston. The slump that went on after the All-Star break is like the triple double stat that Russell Westbrook had last year. Too many people will gravitate to that, so in a way you have to throw it in the garbage. Did it contribute to the final result? Maybe, but you since the big selling point you have to put aside Judge’s slump and compare the numbers. Even if you take out the slump, pretending like those games didn’t happen, Altuve still had the better overall season.

Every reason why you think Judge should have won the AL MVP can be countered with better stats and a better overall team record. Oddly enough, it’s like the NBA MVP race the past couple of seasons with James Harden. Sure, the season was good, just not good enough. Judge will be in right field for the Yankees for years to come, he’s only a rookie, he’ll get his MVP. And, c’mon let’s be real, it wasn’t a total wasted season, Judge still got the American League Rookie of the Year and Silver Slugger for AL right fielders. Judge has been recognized for his tremendous season (he even got on the cover of the next instalment of MLB the Show), put down the pitchforks and live to see another day. The overall battle for Judge isn’t over, there is still time for him to grow and mature as a player. Also, can we just give props to guy that has the same measurable as my younger brother playing up to par with guys like Judge and Jose Ramirez? Altuve is a freak in his own realum and he deserves to be rewarded for the incredible year that he had. This battle will be going on for some time, so just shut the mouth, turn on the game, and watch the David and Goliath of baseball duke it out on the field.