Day 229

Fresh Start_229: “Predicting Baseball”
If there is anything that I agree that Jon Sterling has ever said that I agree with is, “you cannot predict baseball.” As ridiculous as that sounds, it is ultimately true. With the new evolution of statcast in the game of baseball, Amazon Web Services does their best job trying.

Now for me, I for the most part I don’t care what statcast produces because it’s stats like: spin rate, exit velocity, top speed by a fielder, and pop time. These can be validated and used when you are constructing a team if you only look at the stats.

The thing that I have an issue with is, the two stats that statcast has brought into the game as the technology advances and that is: win probability and catch probability. ESPN has introduced win probability as a part of their broadcast many times during the game. This stat in particular is determined by the outcome of previous games like the one going on, the team’s records and how they are playing, and how the game itself has been trending. The only thing wrong with that is, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN! Nothing is off limits or predicable in the game of baseball because you have to pitch your way out of the jam, inning, and game to get the win. A guy hitting .050 who has gone 0-100 can hit the game winning homer with the count being 0-2, that’s just baseball.

The other stat being catch probability, and well how do you predict that? Honestly, every ballpark is different, the weather is different every day, the ball can spin a million different, ways, and well the player could trip over a blade of grass going for a ball. The Major League rate for “catch probability” is 15% which to me sounds low for Major League players, and to give you an example; Tampa Bay Rays Center Fielder Kevin Kiermaier has a catch probability of 65%. How is he so much better than the rest of the league. So, while I like seeing how fast Giancarlo Stanton’s exit velocity is or how much Max Scherzer’s fastball spins, or even how fast Yadier Molina’s pop-up time is throwing a guy out at second base. But, when anybody tries to predict this game, I have a problem with. Whether that is Vegas or Amazon—probability has no place in this game, period.
Sources:(espn.com, mlb.com, theringer.com)

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