Day 229

Fresh Start_229: “Predicting Baseball”
If there is anything that I agree that Jon Sterling has ever said that I agree with is, “you cannot predict baseball.” As ridiculous as that sounds, it is ultimately true. With the new evolution of statcast in the game of baseball, Amazon Web Services does their best job trying.

Now for me, I for the most part I don’t care what statcast produces because it’s stats like: spin rate, exit velocity, top speed by a fielder, and pop time. These can be validated and used when you are constructing a team if you only look at the stats.

The thing that I have an issue with is, the two stats that statcast has brought into the game as the technology advances and that is: win probability and catch probability. ESPN has introduced win probability as a part of their broadcast many times during the game. This stat in particular is determined by the outcome of previous games like the one going on, the team’s records and how they are playing, and how the game itself has been trending. The only thing wrong with that is, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN! Nothing is off limits or predicable in the game of baseball because you have to pitch your way out of the jam, inning, and game to get the win. A guy hitting .050 who has gone 0-100 can hit the game winning homer with the count being 0-2, that’s just baseball.

The other stat being catch probability, and well how do you predict that? Honestly, every ballpark is different, the weather is different every day, the ball can spin a million different, ways, and well the player could trip over a blade of grass going for a ball. The Major League rate for “catch probability” is 15% which to me sounds low for Major League players, and to give you an example; Tampa Bay Rays Center Fielder Kevin Kiermaier has a catch probability of 65%. How is he so much better than the rest of the league. So, while I like seeing how fast Giancarlo Stanton’s exit velocity is or how much Max Scherzer’s fastball spins, or even how fast Yadier Molina’s pop-up time is throwing a guy out at second base. But, when anybody tries to predict this game, I have a problem with. Whether that is Vegas or Amazon—probability has no place in this game, period.
Sources:(espn.com, mlb.com, theringer.com)

Don’t forget to like, comment, subscribe, and share on your way out

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The 2023 Offseason is Brian Cashman's Biggest Test Yet

Image
   Now that the World Series is over five days from now the offseason begins. With that in mind, this is the biggest offseason that Brian Cashman will have in his 25-year tenure as Yankee General Manager. For the first time since 2016 the Bronx Bombers watched the postseason from their couches, and they earned that right. Amazingly, this team finished over .500, although not that far above that mark. This iteration of the Bronx Bombers finish with the same record as that 2016 team—but the feeling with this squad feels different. Following the 2016 season, there was hope of the two power bats that would usher in the “Baby Bombers,” and in that offseason, the farm system was rated in the Top 10 in all of baseball. There was almost certainty that Brian Cashman would put a championship team around Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird, and Luis Severino that would be a title contender for years to come. There was hope. And that hope almost turned into reality. Almost. But, that was then
Read more

The Question going into the Trade Deadline for the New York Yankees

  There is a crossroads in the Bronx in between River and 161 st Street right now. As New York Yankee Manager Aaron Boone likes to put it “[the season] is right in front of them.” The second half of the season is for the taking. As we move into the dog days of summer the Bronx Bombers are nine games out of the division and now a game and a half out of the AL Wild Card race following a disappointing first series in Colorado. With that, the historic starting Tampa Bay Rays have cooled off, going 3-7 before the break while showing signs of being mortal. Baltimore, who has been keeping pace with Tampa, didn’t look like a Superpower when they split against the Yankees two series before the break. The AL East is still a Spartan Training Facility with every team above .500, the Orioles holding the first Wild Card spot, and the “struggling” Boston Red Sox tied the Yankees in the Wild Card race. And unlike Robin Williams in Mrs. Doubtfire, help is not on the way. Aaron Judge’s toe is still a m
Read more

The Answer for the Mets

  As Yogi Berra would say “it’s déjà vu all over again.” Buck Showalter is an all too familiar place. The 67-year-old manager has taken a time machine back to 2012. No, he is not managing in Baltimore anymore, however that’s what it feels like the end of Showalter’s Oriole tenure in Queens right now. The Mets simply can’t get out of their own way. With Pete Alonso likely headed to the Injured List, the Mets scored 10 runs last night in Atlanta. 10 runs on the heels of back-to-back gut-wrenching losses at the hands of the team that has foiled the Mets for the better part of almost three decades, the Atlanta Braves. 10 runs with their hired ace, Justin Verlander, who was looking to put together good starts consecutively for the first time all season. The Mets looked like they were about to exercise some demons in Atlanta last night, and then, the other shoe dropped. It wasn’t good enough. Again. Last night, I wrote that the Mets season was on the line with Verlander toeing the slab. Well
Read more